Cabinet in touch!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Labourlist entry from Hazel Blears:

"I know what recession does to families, and as I look around the Cabinet table, I see colleagues who are in touch with the daily realities of hard-working families"

LA can not even bring himself to comment.

LA

Will labour support turn to the BNP

LA looks on at the growing numbers of "Union" members walking out of oil refineries and worries.

"British jobs for British people" placards are on display.Nick Griffin will surely be rubbing his hands.

LA has real concern as this escalates as to where it ends.
The poor immigration controls of this administration over the years are now turning against them. It was the 30's that ,through economic depression, the far right in Germany prospered. Hatred and turning on others because of their nationality could devastate our nation.

Mr Brown and his cabinet are to blame for the recessions severity, lets us not turn to the weakest in society as scapegoats. Let the blame lie where it should.

Forget demonsrations, let us not have riots. Give us an election. We are the mother of modern democracy and freedom, we should continue in that vein.

There must never be a kristallnacht in Britain.

Smoke and Mirrors job cuts

The more LA asks around and digs the more he finds evidence of job cuts that have little or nothing to do with the recession.
Eon announce 450 job cuts for their retail division, it hasn't made a profit in 2 years that means it was losing during the good times.
LA is aware of a major manufacturer who has been looking for an excuse to scale back UK operations for years but couldn't get it past the unions, they have shinny new plants overseas that were nowhere near capacity.

If this is the case it would suggest that the recession could be more V Shaped, deeper but shorter. LA sincerely hopes this is the case. If not David Cameron will be more like and administrator than a Prime Minister when he gets elected.

LA

UK "Best Placed" lunacy.

How many times have we heard the Prime Minister say Britain is best placed in the current Global slowdown. Time and time again he and his puppet Chancellor have repeated this fallacy.

Today the IMF has issued its predictions for 2009. Global growth of 0.5%, The Eurozones economy to shrink by 2%, US economy to shrink by 1.6%, and wait for it…. UK economy to shrink by 2.8%.

That is the UK economy to shrink 40% more than the Eurozone decline.

How can anyone seriously call this “Best Placed”.

LA knows the only thing best placed to get us out of this is the British fighting spirit. The macro management of the economy over the last 11 years has been steadily worsening, which is why our statistics are far more stark than our competitor nations.

One thing is for sure, delusional Leadership that is in denial will surely condemn Britain to a deeper and longer recession than most.

Should the British people really be subjected to an unelected Prime Minister stumbling through the next 18 months just to massage his own ego? Is it right that UK citizens weather the worst of the storm just to keep a dysfunctional and failed cabinet in position?

Why Mr Brown will you not let the people decide? Why does your arrogance make you believe you know better than them?

Call an election now, let the people speak, and then at their behest just go!

LA

Mandleson ignores the problem

Lord Mandelson has just announced the Automotive package to the Lords. As Lord Allesley predicted, short term sticking plaster on the supply side, no mention of the real problem on the supply side.

Cameron suggested that Mandelson was an alien today, he certainly lives on another planet.

LA

How to sell cars in Britain, fast.

LA has been speaking to car dealers. Very specifically dealers, not manufacturers. They are saying that credit is available for the right people, trouble is those that can get credit are choosing not to apply, they are choosing not to enter the showroom. Fear and uncertainty are keeping the potential car owners away.

Dealers point out, prices are low. On small cars, they expect very little market change as the sort of person likely to buy one cannot get credit, on the bigger vehicles and the prestige vehicles, they know people could get the finance they need. They also know as does LA that many companies could get credit, and there are still private companies sitting on cash, cash that now earns nothing in interest.

Therefore what is needed is a stimulous, not just economic, psychological.
A colleague of LA may well have come up with it.
Remove all punitive taxation and red tape around company cars. Do it for a 2 year period.

LA has no doubt this would see an absolute stampede of people re assess their car ownership. Whether employee or small business owner. Cost to the tax payer ZERO as these people were not going to change car so there would have been no tax generation to lose.

Imagine the Jags and Land Rovers that could be shifted in no time. It would in itself give a lift not just to the car owners, but to the whole economy not just monetarily but mentally.

LA knows this has now been passed as a suggestion to government. It makes sense, costs little and would act swiftly. For all those reasons LA is sure it will be ignored.

LA

Would the IMF cancel 2012

LA sees that over on The Coffee House ( http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/3286261/how-bad-will-this-get.thtml) James Forsyth is concerned about how deep the recession could get and how desolate the British economy will be.
He notes that in the City, some are predicting that the Government Debt Time Bomb will go off in 2012 with the intervention of the IMF.

This got LA thinking, what if the IMF moved in in January 2012? They would dictate terms to UK plc in order to reduce debt, they would insist public spending were slashed beyond recognition. That summer London would be hosting the Olympics. This leads LA to ask the hypothetical question; would the IMF insist the Games were canceled?
Would it be felt that as most of the money had been spent, it may as well go ahead to recoup some of the costs?
LA knows if he were on the IOC he would be concerned.
LA is pro the 2012 games provided the opportunity it provides is not wasted.
It should be an opportunity to join up social schemes to do with activity, health, obesity, anti social behavior. It should act as a catalyst and totem to come around, giving huge economies of scale on the mixed up disparate myriad of current initiatives. It should save millions on promoting these schemes whilst bringing optimism, pride and exitement to a nation.

It is time for government to openly come up with a realistic financial plan for the games in our new economic paradigm. If they do not, many around the world, and any potential private sector funders, may have the same worry as LA.

This is too big, too expensive and too important for Gordon Brown to keep his head in the sand, we need transparency, truthfulness and reality: Three strangers to the Brown administration.

LA

TNT withdraw credit from postal market

TNT Post part of the TNT group that Lord Mandelson has lined up to buy a major stake in Royal Mail is pulling credit lines.

Whilst Lord Mandelson attempt with the inept Chancellor to increase credit availability, his suitor for Royal Mail is doing the opposite.

It appears that over in Amsterdam TNT's insurers have decided they will only insure major blue chip corporates such as Utilities. TNT have therefore decided they will withdraw credit facilities from long term clients that have always paid on time and have no real risk.

This has effectively once again brought the postal network to monopoly status for the vast majority.

The question is what would happen if TNT did get its share of Royal Mail. Would we see thousands of companies lose credit facilities.

It also begs the question as to what TNT's own financial position is if it is totally in the power of insurers; Indeed can it afford to buy the Royal Mail?

LA is still intrigued to know why TNT has been chosen by Mandelson, LA has visited TNT Posts operations and seen the same inefficiency and old fashioned practices that the Royal Mail has like a cancer.

LA also note the Royal Mail "profits". Take off the £200m government bung and it made a loss.Remove the far far above inflation price hikes and it made a loss.

Why does Deutsche Post make 10 times the profit without fiddling the figures.

RM needs to change, see earlier blogs with the Royal Mail tag.

LA is annoyed.

Geoffrey Robinson does he back saving Jaguar?

As a Coventry MP and ex Chief Exec of Jag, Geoffrey should be fairly knowledgeable on this subject.

He is also known to have been a backer of Brown (especially financially) for many many years. He certainly has the ear of the PM.

Robinson has joined the "Back the Jag" campaign with the Coventry Telegraph. This is asking for Government support.

However LA has discovered an interview on the Today program made on November 19th last year where this Coventry MP in a debate with SMMT says that the UK automotive company should not receive government assistance!!

He is adamant that as most manufacturers in the UK are foreign owned and they should sort themselves out.

If such an influential MP as Robinson is saying one thing on one day, and another the next,is it any wonder we are getting no decision or guidance.

It is also one of the greatest U turns and pieces of cynical politicking LA has ever witnessed. LA wonders if his constituents are aware.

LA

Government by "urging"

LA is this morning baffled.

The PM is reported to be "urging" the banks to "Come clean" on their toxic assets.
What?!?
Since when, if something was in the national interest and so important, did governments govern through "urging".

The Government have since nationalisation of the banks, had two tools to use to find out. Pack the board with Government placed Directors, or legislate that they must be forthcoming with the information.

It is madness. The government does not "urge" Lord Allesley not to speed. Its will certainly not "urge" LA to carry an ID card. LA as with every other citizen and organisation in this country is ordered by law to comply if the Government feels it is for the good of the nation. On many of these thing LA fundamentally disagrees as to whether it is in the interests of the nation. No one can disagree though that the stability of the financial system is in all of our interests. So why is Brown (for it is he, not his puppet Chancellor) delaying.

A huge reason for the current crisis is a lack of leadership, here with Brown and over the Pond with Lame Duck Bush. Whilst the US will now get Leadership and Direction (one may disagree with the policies but at least they will be decisive), the UK has still to be given that option.

Tough times need tough decisions and tough leaders, the unelected Brown has time and again shown he is spineless. UK Plc will continue to be blown by the storm as the helm is left unattended.

LA

Lord Digby back to his senses.

It doesn't seem like 5 minutes since LA was sitting in a room with Digby and Gordon Brown with Digby extolling the virtues of what a wonderful visionary Gordon is.

LA thought Digby had not just gone native,but clinically insane too.

It appears that distance from the Ministry of Red Tape has, however, led to Digby regaining his senses and starting to tell it as it is.

Following LA's recent rants on efficiency in the Public Sector Digby has sat before a committee of MP's and told them what he thinks of the Civil service.

He described the civil service as "honest, stuffed full of decent people who work hard".

But he added: "Frankly the job could be done with half as many, it could be more productive, more efficient, it could deliver a lot more value for money for the taxpayer.

"I was amazed, quite frankly, at how many people deserved the sack and yet that was the one threat that they never ever worked under, because it doesn't exist."

LA can only agree. If Digby can see it and say it why can no one else, or is a truth never to be told.

LA trusts the opposition will seize this, and who knows, maybe seize Digby.

LA

No wonder they do not understand efficiency!

LA has noticed an article by Peter Oborne in today's Mail that pretty much sums up why it is not the actions of Government that will save us from recession, they may however send us into a depression.

LA

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-1113700/PETER-OBORNE-If-want-know-whats-wrong-Gordon-Browns-masterplan-remind-man-did-Britain.html

Quantitative Easing- There are other less risk options

Quantitative Easing (QE) the creation of more money in the money supply appears to be on the way. LA believes there are other less dangerous options to use first. QE is and should be seen as a very risky last resort.
Many politicians, bankers and business people are pedaling the idea at present.

LA will, like a stuck record, come back to an alternative, it creates cash but from real assets not from the printing presses.

Most of the big companies in the companies in the UK pay their suppliers on somwhere between 40 and 60 days, in some cases more, this is real money not available to the majority of the businesses. This is £billions.

If the top 100 companies in this country were told they over the next 60 days they had to sort out all of their credit payments to on UK invoices to be settled on 30 days, and from then on all payments would be 30 days. £billions would be pushed into the system.

All 100 would have to meet their financiers and work out how to do this, where there are difficulties, government could step in to guarantee some of this amount.

This is not new made up money. This is money that by rights should have gone down the supply chain already, this is money due and owed.

Instead of guaranteeing hundreds of thousands of little loans, government will be looking at less than 100.

When this money hits suppliers it will for many of them be the first time ever they have had no overdraft, for others they will be well within their limit. This will lead to confidence and hence investment. This will kick start the economy.

Unlike plans to grow the small loans guarantee scheme, business will not have to go cap in hand to the banks, it will be able to make its own decisions.

This method is less risky than quantitative easing which, if overcooked, will lead to hyper-inflation, if undercooked, will be pointless. It is less bureaucratic and faster to deliver than small loan guarantees.

If it works it should be rolled out to the top 250 companies and then the to 500. That would be its maximum due to the cost of administering the scheme. If it fails, the taxpayer cost will have been minimal, the risk to the economy is all but nil.

LA begs that this is considered.

Lack of understanding of efficiency.

This morning LA watched David Cameron on the Marr show. LA was incensed by Marrs lack of understanding of "Efficiency", LA was also a little disappointed DC did not seize on this. However, it is not that surprising, the majority of the Media have never worked in the real world,the same goes for quite a few politicians too. Their understanding of "efficiency" is cuts. This is so far from the truth. The Sir Humphries will also peddle this line as they are so afraid of change (why rock a boat that has such a healthy pension as cargo).
Efficiency isn't about cuts it is about quality. If you deliver right first time, the savings are immense. The biggest waste in the public sector is error, rework and failure. When figures of saving 1% are bandied about LA scoffs. In the private sector such a low target would be seen as playing at it. LA works alongside organisations that regularly find 20 and 30% efficiencies, enhance the skills and pay of the workforce, reduce the carbon footprint and deliver a better product or service to the customer. This is not some panacea, this is reality.

The only reason we never see real efficiency in the public sector is because of the unions, the media and a lack of guts and vision from the political leadership. Perhaps David Cameron will show that when in power, the economic collapse of the nation will certainly present a burning platform to focus minds and generate delivery.

The biggest difficulty will be hearts and minds, The Guardian will call any reduction in expenditure a cut, even if the results are better than previously. Polly Toynbees' idea of efficiency is bulk buying her wine, the rest of them think its using a slow cooker to do the lentils. This is the battle ground, it will be a hard battle, but it can be won and it is worth fighting.

LA

Nissan Missed Opportunity

Back on December 13th Lord Allesley posted that bail outs should only be offered to industrys in a way that saw the tax payer get something back.
Yesterday Nissan announced over 1000 job loses. The impact of this on the tax payer is 1000 dole cheques per month. The impact on Nissan is lost skills.

Is their not something more productive that can be done in the short term.

On the basis that in 12 months many of these people could A) find new employment, B) be retrained C)be needed by Nissan surely a joint Government / Nissan initiative could be put in place.

If the Government gave Nissan the equivilant of the Dole Money & the income tax, by the time Nissan have saved the redundancy money they would have very little expense and could retain the skills for 12 months.

In return the government could insist they get to use their project managers, trainers and some staff in the public sector.

Imagine the benefits that they could bring.

Government could also insist that Nissan people go into their British supply chain and work on efficiency training the staff and building the processes to make them world beating. They could also use them for other companies that are having difficulties. Even the track workers at Nissan know how to for a quality circle and an impovement cell. Inaluble skills.

This approach would make much more sense than throwing tax payers money to have these people on the scrap heap, and then throwing another load of money at Business Link and the Learning and Skills council to help other businesses.

LA points out that due to the fact that this is common sense, it is very unlikely to happen.

LA

Another day another empty brown promise.

On Sunday 100,000 jobs were to be created by the PM, today Its 35,000 apprenticeships.

These are empty promises, Lord Allesley has failed today to find anyone who finds them credible. There is no real measure for sucess, also a feeling that as with government investment, the same number job is counted several times over and re announced and re announced.

The country and business faces a credit crisis, money is not flowing, this is effecting investment spending confidence etc etc. LA does not recall anyone in the last 3 months or so saying "We need more apprentices you know!". We need the markets to begin to move again, that is the important job.

Having tried to analyze todays smoke and mirrors statement on apprentices, LA sees this as a Government initiative not a Business led one, that means whatever apprenticeships that are created(funded) will be dictated by government on their terms, those that the education sector can deliver, rather than those business need and want.

So more waste to come, no realization of the real world and more spin than sense. Who said the Pantomime season was over?

LA

More Money for the Banks

LA is sure the world has gone mad, or the government at least. Why is the Chancellor considering giving more money to the banks. The reason the Banks continue to be in trouble is because of their own behavior. If they remove lines of credit from companies,charge inflated interest or indeed close perfectly good companies , the net result is a reduction in their own asset base and hence balance sheet.

If a bank causes a company to close, chances are a quarter of the debt that it leaves behind is owed to that bank as the creditors also bank with it. This is the economics of the mad house.

LA again urges the chancellor to legislate that the top 250 companies have to pay on 30 days (see previous posts). Yes they will moan, but that means 250 negotiations with financier that would pump around £15 billion into the economy. This will save companies, save jobs, save bank assets and save the tax payer billions.

Why is this not being seized by the treasury, nor the big issue for the opposition?

LA says act now, this is true leadership and if rolled out across the globe, really would stop this recession being a depression.

'09 - Oh Dear

After a Christmas break LA is back sharing his thoughts.

The entry into 2009 sees LA doing two pieces of media work, both with the BBC, one a TV piece on how redundancy and job losses in this down turn are on the whole more low key as the nation does not have that many mass employers, unlike the 80's, and another almost the opposite on the final closure of Woolworths.

LA does not see this as a great start to '09 and wonders when the good news will come again. LA feels that current government policy will not only prolong the agony but leave the nation trailing the world when the upturn eventually comes.

Until the Banks take responsibility collectively for the economy and start behaving in a rational way, nothing is going to change.

Sadly LA does not think we will see a General Election this year, hence this moribund government will stagger on with its delusional Leader believing he is sprinkling magic on all he touches.

As this most authoritarian of government goes into panic mode as 2009 draws to a close, LA expects to see even tighter controls on blogging, government leaning on the media and more restrictions on the public. After so many years in power the governing party will find it impossible to contemplate being out of power and will resort to unorthodox if not unfair means to preserve their grip.

We will also see more unbugeted ill judged and unafordable bribes to the electorate as more and more tax payers money is thrown at a bloated and inefficient public sector.

Is LA dejected? You bet, LA's businesses may be booming, but as he looks at the ruination of his nation, the impoverishment of its people and the removal of their libertys, he thinks 2009 will be a year to forget. Roll on 2010!